AI AFL Tips › 2026 Round 24 › Essendon vs Port Adelaide

Essendon vs Port Adelaide Betting Tips, Prediction R24 2026

Round 24 2026 · Docklands · 2026-08-23T02:20:00+00:00

Essendon vs Port Adelaide AI AFL tips for Round 24 2026, including our predicted winner, score projection, same-game multi legs, roughy bets, and key players.

Our Prediction

56% confidence
84
Port Adelaide
vs
85
Essendon

Essendon by 1 points

Actual: Port Adelaide 105 - 95 Essendon — ✘ Incorrect

Roof on, speed up: Bombers primed to pinch a thriller

Docklands footy usually rewards the team that hits the short kick, owns corridor exits and stays composed in the last five minutes. That reads like Essendon to me. The market leans Port on reputation, but our Essendon vs Port Adelaide prediction has the Bombers by a single point in a high-skill arm wrestle, 85-84. At $2.08 for the home side, there is meat on the bone for punters chasing value in Round 24 AFL betting tips.

Form guide that actually matters for your bet

Essendon’s game tightens under the roof. Zach Merrett sets tempo as the clearance driver then pings outside to connect the wings. With Will Setterfield backing him up at the contest, the Bombers’ first possession chains are cleaner in dry conditions, which is exactly what we’re getting. That directly supports our Best Match Bet on Essendon to win and frames our disposal-focused multis.

Port are always dangerous when they get clean looks to their talls. Mitch Georgiades is clunking everything and Todd Marshall feeds off the second defender. But the flip side is supply. If Essendon’s midfield squeezes entries and forces sideways kicks, Port’s forwards rely on tough angles and long bombs, which is a win for Essendon’s intercept group.

Role-wise, keep an eye on Essendon’s back-half links. Jaxon Prior has settled into the kick-mark rhythm that thrives at Docklands, while Angus Clarke has lifted in recent weeks, floating between half-back and the wing to provide the safe outlet. Those roles are the heartbeat of our Sharp Same Game Multi and our Best Player Prop.

Key matchups that swing the multis

Why we’re tipping Essendon

Price, deck and profile. At $2.08, the implied hit rate is about 48 percent, and we rate Essendon closer to 54 percent in this spot. Indoor, dry footy boosts the Bombers’ ball use and late-game composure. Their close-game profile at Docklands is solid, and with Merrett running the show and Peter Wright working high up the ground to release pressure, Essendon’s inside 50s should be more repeatable.

Port need a field position edge to crack this open. If they do not get it, Essendon’s intercepts will start the ping-pong back the other way and the Bombers’ short options will chew clock. That game script underpins our Essendon vs Port Adelaide prediction of 85-84.

Best bets

Same Game Multi strategy

Sharp Same Game Multi: We stick to dependable floors from role-locked types. Jaxon Prior 15+ is the anchor, given his kick-mark cadence off half-back. Angus Clarke 11+ couples neatly with that, both benefiting from Essendon’s switch-and-hold approach. Peter Wright 10+ disposals adds a high-up-the-ground tall who joins stoppages and link chains, while Port’s Josh Lai and Tom Anastasopoulos round it out as steady rebound-and-high-half-forwards who collect cheap ball when the game stretches. On a fast deck, these are low-variance legs built around volume, not miracles.

Super Same Game Multi: Time to lift the ceiling without abandoning logic. Two key forward scoring legs headline it, with Mitch Georgiades 2+ and Nate Caddy 2+ both well placed indoors against backlines that must spread their attention. Miles Bergman 21+ disposals fits perfectly with Essendon’s expected inside 50 volume, feeding his intercept and release work. Angus Clarke bumps to 12+, again tied to Essendon’s repeat switches, while Todd Marshall anytime keeps Port’s forward threat honest. Add Day-Wicks for Essendon to reach double digits through work rate and back-half exits, and you have a correlated, high-tempo script that matches the roof conditions.

Final verdict

Essendon vs Port Adelaide prediction: Essendon by 1, 85-84. The Bombers’ home-deck control game should tell late, and the price is too generous to ignore. Our Best Match Bet lands on Essendon to win, our Best Player Prop banks Angus Clarke’s link role, and both the Sharp SGM and Super Same Game Multi are built around reliable disposal floors and logical forward targets in fast, dry conditions. That is a portfolio that fits the script and the scoreboard.

Keywords: AFL betting tips, AFL tips, Essendon vs Port Adelaide prediction, same game multi

Sharp Same Game Multi

✔ Prior, Jaxon 15+ Disposals$1.36
Prior has settled into the back-half link role, averaging strong kick-mark chains at Docklands. Port’s forward press forces lateral exits, which suits his measured left boot. Recent form shows consistent mid-teens touches, exactly the profile for a steady 15+.
✘ Wright, Peter 10+ Disposals$1.36
Peter Wright works high up the ground and pinch-hits in ruck, so he racks up touches beyond pure inside-50 targets. Against Port’s key backs he’ll present on the wing and at stoppages, and the quick deck enhances his marking and handball chains.
✔ Josh Lai 12+ Disposals$1.42
Lai’s role as a marking outlet off half-back means repeat uncontested touches. Essendon’s forward entries can be scrappy, inviting intercepts and short kicks. At Docklands, Port’s rebounders typically see steady volume, which keeps Lai in the 12+ window.
✔ Clarke, Angus 11+ Disposals$1.40
Clarke operates as a dependable outlet on the back flank and wing, linking by hand and short kick. He’s been around the 12–14 range lately, and in clean indoor conditions Essendon will use him to exit and switch repeatedly.
✔ Tom Anastasopoulos 10+ Disposals$1.39
Anastasopoulos pushes high from half-forward to support stoppages and release handballs. That roaming role is perfect under the roof, with extra uncontested ball available on the spread. A solid ten looks well within his typical game script.
Combined Odds: $4.97

Lean into reliable role-based disposal floors on a fast deck. Five steady-touch legs from back-half/lead-up types creates a low-variance multi that clears the $4 mark without depending on a single big scorer.

Super Same Game Multi

✔ Bergman, Miles 21+ Disposals$1.39
Bergman’s rebounding role has been humming, with strong mark numbers and consistent involvement in exit chains. Essendon’s inside-50 volume should feed his intercept and release work, and the roof rewards his running patterns for low-20s touches.
✔ Georgiades, Mitch 2+ Goals$1.18
Georgiades is in hot nick, clunking marks and averaging multiple goals lately. Against a young Essendon key defensive unit, his aerial threat and repeat leads should generate enough looks to find at least two majors indoors.
✔ Prior, Jaxon 15+ Disposals$1.36
Prior’s kick-mark cadence out of defence is dependable, and Port’s press often opens the corridor switch. On the Docklands carpet he tends to get rewarded with repeat uncontested touches, making 15 a realistic target.
✔ Josh Lai 12+ Disposals$1.42
Lai profiles as a safe accumulation piece on the rebound. Essendon’s forward entries give Port’s half-backs repeat opportunities to intercept and link, and Lai’s marking game benefits on the fast track for a dozen-plus touches.
✔ Caddy, Nate 2+ Goals$1.18
Caddy’s leading patterns and pack marking have been a bright spot, with regular scoreboard impact. Port can concede to spring-heeled key forwards, and under the roof he should see enough clean delivery to slot a couple.
✔ Clarke, Angus 12+ Disposals$1.61
Clarke’s usage has been trending up as a link option. With Essendon looking to spread Port’s press at Docklands, he’ll feature in short, safe chains by foot and hand. That style typically lands him in the low teens.
✘ Marshall, Todd Anytime Goalscorer$1.24
Marshall remains a dangerous secondary tall who finds separation on leading lanes. Essendon’s defence must mind Georgiades, which frees Marshall for at least one clean look inside 50 in fast conditions.
✔ Tom Anastasopoulos 11+ Disposals$1.60
With a license to roam high from half-forward, Anastasopoulos gets involved around stoppages and in link play. At Docklands, that role yields extra uncontested ball and quick give-and-go possessions, pushing him into the low teens.
✔ Day-Wicks, Archer 10+ Disposals$1.52
Day-Wicks brings pressure but also releases by hand out of congestion. In a fast, dry game his work rate translates to cheap touches up the wings and back-half exits, a pathway to double-digit disposals.
Combined Odds: $10.31

Push the ceiling with two key forward goal legs plus higher disposal asks for rebounding pieces on a quick deck. Correlated game script indoors boosts mark-kick chains and forward looks, while still spreading risk across roles.

Roughy & Value Bets

✘ Essendon to win$2.08 · Value: 7
The market leans Port off reputation, but the projection had this almost level and Essendon’s ball use historically lifts at Docklands. Merrett, Setterfield and Roberts should control tempo in dry conditions. At $2.08, the home deck and close-game profile make this price attractive.
✔ Clarke, Angus 11+ Disposals$1.40 · Value: 8
Clarke’s season rate sits around the low teens and his last five has ticked up. As a half-back/wing link on the Docklands carpet, he benefits from Essendon’s switch game and short options. Against Port’s press, he should be repeatedly used.

Key Players to Watch

Zachary Merrett

Essendon · clearance driver and outside distributor

He sets Essendon’s tempo at Docklands and has been stacking 30+ touches, crucial to denying Port clean rebound.

Jase Burgoyne

Port Adelaide · rebounding half-back and link player

In strong form, his intercept and overlap run can punish sloppy forward entries and flip field position quickly.

Mitch Georgiades

Port Adelaide · key forward aerial target

Averaging multiple goals recently, his marking inside 50 is Port’s best path to a road upset if delivery is clean.

Key Factors