Penultimate Pressure: Value Hunting in the Round 23 Chaos
The final fortnight of the home and away season separates the contenders from the pretenders. Teams are desperate, percentage matters more than ever, and punters are looking for that late season edge. When you are putting together your AFL Round 23 2025 tips, you have to factor in pure motivation. It is the heaviest metric in footy right now.
Take the Western Bulldogs as the prime example. They are not just looking for a simple victory against West Coast this weekend. They need a massive percentage boost to secure September action. The Eagles have scraped together a miserable four premiership points on the road all year. Expect Marcus Bontempelli and his midfield brigade to be absolutely ruthless in a game where an 80-point margin feels genuinely achievable.
Down in Tasmania, we have a fascinating clash at Bellerive Oval. North Melbourne holds a recent psychological edge over Richmond, and the heavier conditions down south perfectly suit a contested scrap. This is a classic fixture where the ladder does not tell the full story. Backing the Kangaroos here is one of the sharper Round 23 betting tips you will find on the board.
Then we turn our attention to the Gold Coast Suns defending their Carrara fortress. GWS brings star power with Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio, but Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson play a bruising, territory-based brand of footy at home that suffocates travelling teams. The Suns force errors and capitalize heavily in their own backyard. They are a brilliant anchor for your AFL multi bets this weekend.
You also cannot ignore the ruck battle under the roof at Marvel Stadium. Rowan Marshall is arguably the most damaging big man in the competition when it comes to ground-level accumulation. He will dismantle an Essendon side that currently leaks goals at an alarming rate, highlighted by a dreadful 72 percent defensive accountability rating. St Kilda represents excellent value to cause an upset.
Finally, the Friday night blockbuster in the west is going to be won at the coalface. Caleb Serong against Lachie Neale is a matchup for the purists. Fremantle thrives in front of a hostile Perth Stadium crowd, and their ability to extract the ball cleanly will prove too much for the Lions in a tight contest. Trust the form, watch the inside midfield battles closely, and cash in before the finals arrive.