FootyBets.aiFriday Night Fire: Why The Dockers Will Send Brisbane Packing In Perth
Friday night footy in the west is notoriously unforgiving. When the Brisbane Lions touch down in Western Australia this week, they face one of the most gruelling road trips in the sport. Perth Stadium will be rocking as Fremantle looks to make a massive statement in Round 23. The stakes are sky high for both clubs as September looms large.
Fremantle is building a formidable fortress at home. Their team defence is incredibly stingy, and they know exactly how to choke the life out of travelling sides. Brisbane certainly has immense firepower, yet transitioning the ball through the corridor against a disciplined Dockers unit is a monumental task. The Lions rely heavily on fast ball movement. If Fremantle clogs up the middle and forces them wide, the home side gains a huge tactical advantage.
The Engine Room Battle
The true contest will be won and lost in the centre square. Caleb Serong is the undisputed king of the Fremantle midfield. He sets a brutal physical tone and lives at the bottom of the packs. His ability to win first possession is the ultimate catalyst for Fremantle controlling the territory game.
On the other side, Lachie Neale returns to his old stomping ground. Brisbane relies heavily on his stoppage creativity to feed Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron. The Dockers must place heavy attention on their former star if they want to cut off the Brisbane supply chain.
Another vital piece of the puzzle is Josh Treacy. His contested marking is vital for bailing Fremantle out of defence. He straightens them up and demands a top tier defensive matchup from Brisbane captain Harris Andrews. How Andrews handles the physical presence of Treacy will be fascinating to watch.
The Final Verdict
Our official Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions prediction lands firmly on the home side. The Dockers knocked off the Lions at this exact venue early last year, and their midfield mix is perfectly suited to the wide expanses of Perth Stadium.
Expect an absolute war at the clearances where the deafening local crowd drags Fremantle over the line. We are confidently backing Fremantle to win by 7 points in a gritty 82 to 75 victory.
Building Your Same Game Multi
When constructing a solid same game multi, banking on the premier ball winners is always a smart play. Caleb Serong is an absolute magnet on his home deck. He practically lives at the bottom of the packs and racks up 25 touches in his sleep. Combine his 25 plus disposals with Lachie Neale also grabbing 25 plus touches. The dual Brownlow medallist loves reminding his former club exactly what they are missing and averages well over 28 disposals against them.
Finally, take Fremantle at plus 15.5. Even if the Lions find a purple patch of scoring, the defensive structure of the Dockers will keep this match tight. A blowout loss for the home side is highly unlikely. This safe play nets you solid 2.35 odds.
For punters chasing a massive payout, we have a juicy 36.50 to 1 multi. We start with a Fremantle 1 to 39 margin. Top four clashes rarely blow out, and a Dockers win will almost certainly be a grinding, hard fought victory. Add Caleb Serong for 30 plus disposals since he is the main distributor out of the middle. We are also throwing in Josh Treacy for two or more goals. Treacy is presenting beautifully this season, providing a huge target inside 50 while thriving on the prime time stage.
Next, add Hugh McLuggage for 25 plus disposals. McLuggage uses the wide wings of Optus Stadium better than most and will find plenty of uncontested ball if the Lions look to switch play. Finally, Hayden Young needs 5 plus tackles. Young brings serious aggression to the Fremantle engine room and will be hunting bodies all night against a classy Brisbane midfield.
The Roughy Bets
If you want some outside value for your AFL betting tips this week, look at Jye Amiss to kick three or more goals at 4.50 odds. Amiss has a brilliant knack for slotting clutch goals when the pressure gauge goes up. If the Lions focus all their defensive energy on Treacy, Amiss could easily get off the chain.
Another cracking option is the Brisbane Half Time and Fremantle Full Time Double at 6.00 odds. The Lions are notorious for fast starts, but playing away in Perth often catches up with travelling squads in the final term. The Dockers finishing strong and overrunning them in the fourth quarter holds enormous appeal.
This Friday night blockbuster has all the makings of an instant classic. Follow these AFL tips and keep a close eye on the clearance numbers early in the piece. Fremantle will make this a scrap, and that plays perfectly into their hands.