FootyBets.aiThe Hawks Are Hunting: Hawthorn vs Carlton Preview
The MCG is the perfect stage for a genuine Friday night grudge match. Last time these two sides crossed paths, Sam Mitchell and his men put on an absolute clinic. They pulled apart the Blues by 74 points late last season and laid down the definitive blueprint on how to beat them. Now we get the highly anticipated rematch early in the 2025 fixture.
When looking at the form lines for both camps, it is impossible to ignore Hawthorn's dynamic small forward brigade. They look absolutely lethal right now and are ready to run rampant on the wide expanses of the MCG. Conversely, Carlton boasts a monster midfield led by their skipper Patrick Cripps. He remains a contested beast, but the Blues have a distinct vulnerability on the outside that the Hawks are perfectly equipped to exploit. If you are hunting for AFL betting tips this week, this clash offers brilliant value across the board.
The Battle of the Midfield Bulls
Every footy fan knows Carlton relies heavily on Patrick Cripps and George Hewett in the contested possession battle. Cripps is the undisputed heartbeat of the Blues. He amassed 32 touches and 9 clearances in Round 1 and has cleared the 30-disposal mark in four of his last five games. Currently averaging a massive 32 disposals and 15 contested possessions, he is in absolute peak form. Hawthorn simply must find a way to blunt his influence at the stoppage if they want to control the tempo.
Standing in his way is Jai Newcombe. The Hawthorn battering ram thrives in these prime time MCG clashes and sets up all of their deadly outside run. Newcombe started the year with a solid 25 touches and finished his 2024 campaign with massive hauls of 35 and 31. Punters seeking reliable AFL tips will find plenty of upside in this specific midfield matchup. His personal duel with Cripps in the centre square will likely dictate the entire flow of the match.
Why The Hawks Get The Points
Our definitive Carlton vs Hawthorn prediction lands firmly on the brown and gold. We are tipping Hawthorn to win by 18 points, and I am stepping into this clash with a solid 68% confidence level on that margin.
The Hawks carry a massive psychological edge after that Round 22 thrashing last year. They possess the outside speed and immense forward pressure required to stretch the Blues defensively. Dylan Moore and Nick Watson are in incredible goal-scoring form. Watson, known to the Hawthorn faithful as The Wizard, has kicked 13 goals across his last five matches. He is proving to be a complete nightmare for opposition defenders. The Blues simply lack the defensive foot speed to contain this small forward mosquito fleet for four quarters.
Building Your Same Game Multi
Punters love a same game multi and this fixture gives us two very distinct angles to play.
For those wanting a reliable bank builder, our safe option pays 2.02. We are banking on absolute midfield certainties here to establish a strong base. Take Patrick Cripps to collect 25+ disposals. He is an absolute machine and the focal point of their inside game. Combine that with Jai Newcombe to get 20+ disposals as the primary ball-winner for the Hawks. Finally, add Dylan Moore as an anytime goalscorer. Moore is the ultimate pressure forward who snagged three goals in Round 1 and consistently hits the scoreboard.
If you want a bigger payout, our adventurous SGM sits at a massive 44.50. This multi leans heavily into the expected game script where the Hawks win on the back of their elite small forwards, while Carlton's inside midfielders rack up numbers in a losing effort. We start with a Hawthorn victory. Then we add Cripps for 30+ disposals and George Hewett for 25+ disposals. Hewett has flown under the radar but his numbers are staggering, having cleared the 25-disposal mark in four of his last five outings including a 33-touch game. We finish this bold play by backing the Hawthorn smalls to feast. Take both Nick Watson and Dylan Moore to kick 2+ goals. Moore routinely turns half-chances into multiples, while Watson has booted multiple goals in four of his past five matches.
Hunting For Roughy Value
There is brilliant value sitting deep in the exotic markets for this clash. Our favourite roughy bet of the round is Nick Watson to kick 3+ goals at a juicy 4.50. The stats on this are simply too good to ignore. Watson has kicked three or more goals in four of his last five appearances. The market is vastly undervaluing his current scoring trajectory and we are happy to take the generous price.
Another massive value play is Tom De Koning to collect 20+ disposals at 4.00 odds. Ruckmen rarely get high disposal lines, but De Koning essentially plays as an extra midfielder for the Blues. He racked up 28 disposals in Round 1 and has shown a unique ability to gather possession at ground level.
The Final Verdict
Hawthorn has the tactical blueprint and the sheer leg speed to overwhelm Carlton. While the Blues will dominate the hard-ball gets through Cripps and Hewett, the Hawks will punish them heavily on the turnover.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 18 points (92 to 74).