FootyBets.aiMagpies Primed to Ground the Dockers at the MCG
The top of the ladder is a very comfortable place to sit. Craig McRae has his Collingwood outfit humming like a finely tuned engine. Meanwhile, Justin Longmuir and his Fremantle side are desperately fighting tooth and nail just to keep their September dreams alive. Getting a win at the MCG against the absolute benchmark of the competition is the toughest assignment in footy right now.
When assessing the numbers for your AFL betting tips this week, the disparity between these two sides becomes crystal clear. Collingwood averages almost 90 points a game and they turn the MCG into a fortress. They have won four of their last six encounters against Fremantle and simply do not drop games at this venue. The Dockers have a patchy record on the hallowed turf. Their well-documented struggles to kick winning scores outside of Perth will be their undoing here.
The Engine Room Battle
The midfield clash is where this contest will be won and lost. Caleb Serong has been a one-man wrecking ball in the clinches for Fremantle. He is averaging 27.5 disposals and carrying a huge load for his team. The problem is the sheer wave of black and white numbers that will hit him. The Daicos brothers, Scott Pendlebury, and Jack Crisp offer a depth of rotation that Fremantle just cannot match. Nick Daicos is gathering 30 touches for fun every week. Even if the Dockers try to apply a hard tag, the Brownlow fancy will find a way to get off the chain.
Down back, Luke Ryan will be an incredibly busy man for the visitors. With the Magpies expected to dominate territory, Ryan will need all of his intercepting brilliance to hold back the black and white tsunami. He will be seeing plenty of the Sherrin but stopping the sheer volume of forward entries is another matter entirely. This brings Jamie Elliott right into the spotlight. Billy loves playing on the big stage. His aerial ability combined with his elite crumbing makes him a nightmare for the Fremantle defenders.
When putting together a Collingwood vs Fremantle prediction, you cannot look past the venue and the scoring power. The Magpies will control the tempo on the wide wings of the MCG. They will suffocate the Dockers with their trademark pressure and eventually break them open late in the game. We are backing Collingwood to cover the line comfortably and secure a 19-point victory.
Same Game Multi Magic
Punters looking for a rock-solid same game multi should focus on the undeniable ball magnets and the most reliable path to goal for the home side. Our safe option sits at $2.65. We are taking Collingwood to win outright because their MCG record is flawless. Combine that with Nick Daicos to collect 25 or more disposals. It is virtually money in the bank considering his current form. We are also backing Caleb Serong to crack the 25-disposal mark. He is a contested beast and will be heavily relied upon to lift his side. Round out the safe play with Jamie Elliott as an anytime goalscorer. He is poised to kick a bag and is the most dangerous small forward on the park.
If you want to chase a bigger payout, our adventurous multi offers immense value at $24.50. This play relies on a game script where Collingwood dictates terms and wins comfortably. Take the Pies to clear the -15.5 line. We expect their trademark final quarter pressure to blow the margin out. Bump Jamie Elliott up to three or more goals. If the Freo defence starts leaking, he will be the primary beneficiary. Add Josh Treacy to kick two or more goals. The man they call the Big Cohuna is the absolute focal point inside 50 for the Dockers. Finish it off with two Fremantle defenders racking up the stats under heavy fire. Take Luke Ryan for 20 or more disposals and Jordan Clark to also gather 20 touches. Clark averages 24.5 for the season and will easily clear this mark providing run off half-back.
Roughies and Value Plays
If you are hunting for serious value in the AFL tips this week, we have two standout roughy plays. The underlying numbers strongly point toward a breakout game for Patrick Voss. He is tracking to kick a massive four goals. Grabbing him for three or more majors at $5.50 is a fantastic speculative punt based on his expected volume of opportunities.
For a completely different angle, look at Beau McCreery in the tackling markets. He is expected to lay a staggering 12 tackles. While that number is extreme, it strongly indicates he will be given a specific lock-down role. Taking McCreery to lay seven or more tackles at $3.20 is a brilliant value play.
The Final Verdict
Collingwood has too much firepower and far too much class through the middle of the ground. Fremantle will try to turn this into an arm wrestle but the Magpies will eventually run them off their legs.
Final Score Prediction: Collingwood 89 defeats Fremantle 70