FootyBets.aiRighto footy fans, put the cue in the rack at work because it’s time for the big one. Outside of the last Saturday in September, there is no bigger stage in Australian sport than the ANZAC Day clash at the MCG. We’ve got 90,000 screaming fans, two massive Victorian powerhouses, and a tradition that separates the men from the boys.
We’ve crunched the numbers, run the simulations, and our AI AFL Betting Tips are locked and loaded. Let’s get stuck into this Collingwood vs Essendon prediction.
The Form Guide
Let’s not beat around the bush—the Pies have absolutely had the wood over the Bombers in recent history. They’ve got the chocolates in four of the last six meetings, and who could forget the absolute 70-point shellacking they handed the Dons last time out? That wasn’t just a win; they monstered them.
While the Bombers have shown patches of brilliance this season, they often look like world-beaters one week and wooden spoon contenders the next. Collingwood, on the other hand, knows how to stand up when the heat is on. ANZAC Day usually levels the playing field—form often goes out the window in the opening ten minutes of frenzy—but class is permanent.
This isn't a dead rubber; this is a genuine test of where Essendon is at. Unfortunately for the Sash, the data suggests they might come up short again against a Magpies outfit that knows how to grind out a win at the 'G.
Key Matchups: The Engine Room Battle
This game will be won and lost in the middle. We are looking at a genuine heavy-weight bout: Merrett and Parish vs. Daicos and De Goey.
Zach Merrett is an absolute freak. The bloke is a magnet. He’s had 36, 38, and 36 disposals in his last three outings against the Pies. He finds the Sherrin like he’s got it on a string. Then you have Darcy Parish, who seemingly transforms into prime Gary Ablett Snr the moment he hears the Last Post. His ANZAC Day numbers are absurd—44 touches in 2022 and 42 in 2021. He lives for this fixture.
But the Pies have the X-factor. Nick Daicos monstered this game last year with 40 touches and two snags. He breaks lines, he hits the scoreboard, and frankly, Essendon doesn't have a tagger disciplined enough to stop him. Throw in Jordan De Goey, who loves the big dance more than anyone, and the Pies just have too many weapons.
The Verdict: Why We're Backing the Pies
We aren't sitting on the fence here. We’re backing Collingwood to get the job done. Our Essendon vs Collingwood prediction model has the Magpies winning by 15 points (79-94).
Why? Because Collingwood's system holds up better under pressure. Essendon relies too heavily on Merrett to do the heavy lifting. If the Pies clamp down on him even slightly, the Bombers' drive dries up. Furthermore, the MCG advantage is neutralized here, making it a battle of pure skill and tactical execution—areas where Craig McRae’s men are flag favourites for a reason.
Expect a tight contest early, but the Pies should grind it out and kick away in the last quarter.
Our Tip: Collingwood by 15 points.
The Sharp SGM (Odds: $3.95)
We’ve built this multi around the guys who simply don't have bad games on this stage.
- Zach Merrett 30+ Disposals: Death, taxes, and Merrett racking them up vs the Pies. As mentioned, his last three games against them are 36, 38, and 36. 30 is a walk in the park.
- Nick Daicos 25+ Disposals: He had a day out last ANZAC Day. 25 is a conservative line for a bloke averaging what he does.
- Collingwood to Win: They own this fixture recently and have the class edge.
- Anytime Goalscorer: Jordan De Goey: He loves the spotlight. Kicked 2 in this game last year and always drifts forward to punish the opposition.
The Adventurous SGM (Odds: $48.50)
Feeling a bit spicy? This one is for the punters who want to swing for the fences. We're banking on the Essendon midfielders racking up huge numbers even in a loss, combined with a tight finish.
- Darcy Parish 30+ Disposals: He lifts for the occasion. 30 is his baseline on ANZAC Day.
- Zach Merrett 35+ Disposals: If Essendon gets close, it's because Merrett has touched it 40 times. We'll take the 35+ line for value.
- Nick Daicos Anytime Goal: He drifts forward and hits the scoreboard regularly. Kicked 2 majors in this game last year.
- Collingwood Winning Margin 1-39: ANZAC clashes are rarely blowouts. It’s usually a grind. 3 of the last 4 were under 4 goals.
- Jack Crisp 20+ Disposals: Mr Consistency against his old mob. Has hit 20+ in his last 4 against the Dons.
Roughy Bets
If you're looking for a little bit of value on the side, have a squiz at these:
- Darcy Parish 35+ Disposals ($4.20): Look at the history books. 44 and 42 disposals in previous ANZAC games. If it turns into a scrap, he’s in the thick of it.
- Nick Daicos to kick 2+ Goals ($5.50): He did it last year. When the game opens up late, Daicos pushes forward and punishes tired legs.
Righto, that’s the form done. Good luck with the punt, and enjoy the footy!