FootyBets.aiPower Surge at the Port: Can the Cats Weather the Storm at Adelaide Oval?
September footy has arrived a week early for some, but for Port Adelaide and Geelong, this is the main event. We are looking at a qualifying final preview disguised as a home and away fixture, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Port Adelaide is currently the hottest ticket in town, riding a five game winning streak that has seen them catapult into the top four with the double chance safely tucked away. Meanwhile, the Cats are doing what they always do, lingering dangerously with a blend of old school grit and the most dangerous forward in the competition.
Adelaide Oval will be rocking, and while Geelong has a history of silencing hostile crowds, the current version of the Power looks like a different beast entirely. This isn't the fragile Port side of years gone by. This is a group led by a midfield that plays with a level of arrogance and speed that few teams can match when they get on a roll.
The Engine Room Battle
Port Adelaide’s recent surge is built on a foundation of pure explosive power. Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis are currently the most dynamic duo in the AFL. Butters is averaging 28.7 disposals for the season and has cleared the 25 mark in four of his last five outings. He is the creative spark, the player who finds the handball receive and slices through the corridor. Then you have Horne-Francis, who has been kicking two goals a game over the last three weeks while bursting out of stoppages like he's been shot from a cannon.
Geelong will counter with the old guard. Patrick Dangerfield proved he still has the minerals by racking up 25 disposals against West Coast, and he historically finds another gear when the pressure is at its peak. However, the Cats' reliance on veteran legs is a concern against a Port side that plays at such a high tempo. If the game becomes a track meet, Geelong might find themselves gasping for air by the third quarter.
The Ruck Factor and Forward Firepower
One of the most lopsided stats heading into this clash is the ruck battle. Jordon Sweet has transformed Port’s clearance work. He is a high pressure big man, evidenced by his record of four or more tackles in each of his last five starts. Coming up against Rhys Stanley, Sweet should be able to provide Butters and Ollie Wines with first use. Wines has quietly returned to his Brownlow winning best, clearing the 25 disposal line in four of his last five matches.
At the other end of the ground, Jeremy Cameron is the giant shadow looming over Port’s defense. His nine goal masterclass in Round 24 was a reminder that he is the most complete footballer in the league. If Geelong is going to cause an upset, it starts and ends with Cameron. He averages 2.6 goals per game this year and will need to exceed that for the Cats to stay in touch.
Why the Power Gets the Nod
While Geelong rarely gets blown away in big games, Port Adelaide has the psychological edge of beating the Cats at Kardinia Park earlier this season. Winning in Geelong is the hardest task in footy, and doing so has given Ken Hinkley’s men the belief that they can handle whatever Chris Scott throws at them. The fast deck at Adelaide Oval perfectly suits Port’s transition game and their high pressure small forwards.
Max Holmes will try to be the line breaker for Geelong, and while he’s likely to get his 25 disposals, Port’s ability to lock the ball in their forward half should eventually wear the Cats down. Port is playing with a level of connectivity that Geelong hasn't quite mastered consistently this year.
Same Game Multi Breakdown
For those looking for a reliable play, we are focusing on the most consistent ball winners. A sharp same game multi involves Zak Butters to find 25 or more disposals and Jordon Sweet to lay at least 3 tackles. We add Jeremy Cameron for 2 plus goals because he is the focal point of everything the Cats do, and Patrick Dangerfield to reach 20 disposals as he hunts the footy in the clinches. This combined play sits at 3.66 and covers the most likely stat lines for the game's biggest stars.
If you are chasing a bigger payday, the adventurous same game multi at 39.85 targets the goal kickers. We like Port Adelaide to win by 1 to 39 points, combined with Jason Horne-Francis and Tyson Stengle both kicking at least 2 goals. Add in Ollie Wines and Max Holmes both finding 25 disposals, and you have a ticket that reflects a high scoring, high disposal game at the Oval.
The Roughy Bet
The value play here is Zak Butters to go massive with 35 plus disposals at 5.50. He had a 42 disposal game recently and in a high stakes final like this, he will be the primary target for every Port transition. If Port wins comfortably, it is usually because Butters has had the ball on a string.
Final Verdict
Port Adelaide is in the zone right now. Their midfield depth and home ground advantage should be enough to overcome a Geelong side that relies heavily on a few key individuals. Expect a high quality contest that stays close for three quarters before Port’s younger legs pull away late.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 12 points (92-80)