FootyBets.aiWill the Suns Finally Shine at the MCG? Gold Coast vs Richmond Round 24 Preview
There is a peculiar smell in the air at the MCG this weekend, and it is not just the scent of overpriced pies and optimism. It is the smell of a season finally coming to a merciful end for the Richmond Football Club. For the Gold Coast Suns, this Round 24 clash represents one final chance to prove they can actually win a game of football when they have to check luggage at the airport.
We all know the narrative by now. The Suns are world-beaters at People First Stadium and absolute road-kill everywhere else. But if Damien Hardwick can’t get his boys up to dismantle a Richmond side that has essentially spent the last three months waving the white flag, then there are deeper questions to be asked. This isn’t the Richmond of the triple-premiership era. This is a side with a percentage of 64.1 and just two wins for the entire calendar year.
Form Analysis: A Tale of Two Struggles
Richmond has completely bottomed out. While their fans are already looking forward to a handful of top-ten draft picks, the current on-field product has been tough to watch. They have consistently stayed in games for a half before falling off a cliff in the third and fourth quarters. Their defensive structure has been nonexistent at times, and their inability to stop opposition runs is the primary reason they sit dead last.
On the flip side, Gold Coast has been teasing us all year. They have the cattle in the middle to compete with anyone, but the mental hurdle of playing away from the Gold Coast or Darwin has been their Achilles heel. However, the Suns have won four of the last five encounters against the Tigers. That includes a 39 point demolition earlier this year where the Richmond midfield looked like they were running in wet cement.
The Engine Room Disparity
When you look at the Richmond vs Gold Coast Suns prediction for this weekend, the game will be won or lost in the guts. Noah Anderson and Sam Flanders are currently putting up numbers that would make a fantasy coach weep with joy. Combined, they are averaging over 60 disposals per game. Anderson is the battering ram, averaging 28.9 touches and leading the charge with inside 50s. Flanders has reinvented himself as a high-volume possession winner, clicking for 31 touches a game and providing the link-up play the Suns have lacked in previous seasons.
Richmond simply does not have the defensive midfield accountability to stop this duo. If Anderson and Flanders get first use, the Richmond backline, led by a hardworking but overworked Daniel Rioli, will be under constant siege. Rioli has been a rare shining light for the Tigers, averaging 36 disposals over the last fortnight, but he can’t defend and kick the goals at the same time.
Why the Suns Clear the Line
The talent gap here is cavernous. Even with the Suns' poor travel record, the sheer weight of possession should see them home. Mac Andrew has been a revelation since moving into the forward line. His athleticism is a nightmare for a Richmond defence that lacks the versatile talls to track him. He has already shown he can bag three or four goals when the delivery is right.
With Ben King averaging 2.6 goals per game and looking for a big finish to the year, the Suns' scoring options are just too varied. Richmond has conceded massive scores all season, and with the wide wings of the MCG, the Suns' transition play should flourish. Expect the Suns to break the game open after half-time, much like every other team has done to the Tigers lately.
Same Game Multi Breakdown
For those looking for a sensible play, we are focusing on the disposal magnets. A sharp same game multi involves Gold Coast to win, paired with Sam Flanders and Noah Anderson both collecting 25 or more disposals. Flanders has cleared this in four of his last five, and Anderson is coming off a massive 33 disposal game. Throw in Ben King for an anytime goal to round out a solid 3.18 return.
If you are feeling a bit more adventurous, we are looking at a total Richmond collapse. The Suns 40+ margin is juicy at 3.40. Pair that with Mac Andrew to kick two or more goals and Matt Rowell to do what he does best by sticking at least seven tackles. Rowell is averaging eight tackles a game and is the primary reason opposition midfields can’t get clean exits. If the Suns really put the foot down, Flanders finding 35 touches is well within reach given the space the MCG offers.
The Roughy
Mac Andrew to kick four or more goals at 7.50 is the play here. Since his move forward, he has become the focal point. He kicked four against Essendon and three against West Coast. Richmond's defensive structure often disintegrates under pressure, and Andrew’s ability to take marks at the highest point makes him almost unguardable if the delivery is even slightly accurate.
Final Verdict
The MCG hoodoo is a real thing, but the Richmond 2024 form is even more real. Gold Coast has too much to play for in terms of pride and finishing the season on a high. The midfield dominance of Flanders, Anderson, and Rowell will provide enough opportunities for King and Andrew to put this game to bed by the third change.
Prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 34 points. Score: Richmond 68 - Gold Coast Suns 102