FootyBets.aiSuns Set for Another Empty Trip West as Freo Ramps Up
If the AFL ladder was decided solely on home games the Gold Coast Suns would be booking hotels for late September already. Unfortunately for Damien Hardwick the fixture requires his side to board planes and this is where things fall apart. The Suns have developed a case of travel sickness so severe they should probably check themselves into quarantine before kickoff. They are yet to register a win on the road in 2024 and heading to Optus Stadium to face a disciplined Fremantle outfit is hardly the cure they are looking for.
Fremantle has quietly gone about their business. They sit in the mix for finals and boast a midfield that can strangle opponents. Justin Longmuir has his troops playing a high-possession brand of footy that suits the wide expanses of the Perth turf perfectly. While the Suns are busy wondering where their home ground advantage went the Dockers will be controlling the tempo and slicing through the corridor.
The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of the AFL
The stats regarding Gold Coast's away form are staggering. They look like world-beaters at Carrara but turn into absolute passengers the moment they cross state lines. It is not just about losing close ones either. They get thumped. Their defensive structure seems to dissolve without the humidity of Queensland holding it together.
Fremantle on the other hand has found a reliable gear. Their midfield brigade led by Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw is elite at winning the contested ball and spreading rapidly. They are averaging high disposal numbers because they deny the opposition the footy. Against a Suns side that struggles to defend transition on big grounds this looks like a mismatch in the middle.
Key Matchups: The Speed vs The Slog
The critical battle here is between Fremantle’s outside run and Gold Coast’s inside grunt. Matt Rowell is a beast in the contest and he will tackle anything that moves. He is currently averaging over nine tackles a game which is frankly ridiculous. However once the ball leaves the stoppage Freo’s runners take over.
Jordan Clark has been in career-best form off half-back. He is not just defending. He is launching attacks and breaking lines. The Suns simply do not have a forward tagger capable of keeping up with him for four quarters. If Clark gets off the chain early it will be a long afternoon for the visitors.
Why We Are Tipping Fremantle
We are keeping this simple. You do not bet against the strongest trend in the league without a very good reason. Gold Coast's inability to win away is a psychological hurdle as much as a physical one now. Fremantle covers the spread well at home and they have the specific weapons to exploit the Suns' lack of pace on the outside. We expect the Dockers to win the midfield battle and pull away in the second half for a comfortable victory.
Verdict: Fremantle by 23 points (98-75).
Sharp Same Game Multi (Odds: 2.45)
This multi is built on reliability and volume. We are backing the home side and pairing it with three players who find the footy for fun.
- Fremantle to Win: Until the Suns prove they can play football outside of Queensland fading them on the road is the smartest play in AFL betting.
- Sam Flanders 25+ Disposals: Flanders has morphed into a genuine fantasy pig. He averages 31.4 disposals and hits this line comfortably even when his team gets smashed.
- Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals: Mr. Consistent does not have bad games. He averages 31.5 disposals this season. 25 is a walk in the park for him.
- Luke Ryan 20+ Disposals: The Suns often bomb long into the defensive 50 under pressure. Luke Ryan will be sitting there waiting to intercept and distribute. He averages 25.4 touches a game.
Adventurous Same Game Multi (Odds: 24.5)
For those looking for a bigger return we are leaning into the specific game script of a Fremantle blowout where the Suns are chasing tails.
- Jordan Clark 25+ Disposals: Clark is flying with recent tallies of 36, 35 and 26. He loves the Perth deck and will be the primary link man.
- Sam Flanders 30+ Disposals: We are bumping his line up. The ball will live in the Suns' back half which means plenty of cheap chip-kicks for Flanders.
- Josh Treacy 2+ Goals: The Big Cohuna is the most dangerous target inside 50 for Freo right now. He will get plenty of looks against a leaky defence.
- Matt Rowell 8+ Tackles: When the Suns lose possession Rowell tries to win it back. He is a tackling machine and the game state suits high tackle numbers for him.
- Fremantle -18.5 Line: We are predicting the standard Gold Coast capitulation. Freo should cover this comfortably.
Roughy of the Week
Jordan Clark 30+ Disposals @ 4.20
The bookies have been slow to adjust to Clark's new ceiling. He has cleared 30 disposals in two of his last three games. He is playing with supreme confidence and demands the footy. At this price it is exceptional value for a player in such hot form.