FootyBets.aiFriday Night Blockbuster: Blues Look to Pile Misery on Sliding Cats
It feels like only yesterday we were talking about Geelong as the undisputed team to beat in 2024. Fast forward a few weeks and Chris Scott is looking at the ladder with a nervous sweat while the media sharpen their knives. The Cats head to the MCG this Friday night to face a Carlton side that finally looks like the real deal again. This isn't just another game for the Blues. It is a massive opportunity to claim a big scalp against a wounded opponent. The stakes are high and the betting value is even higher.
The Form Guide
The numbers are grim down at the Cattery. Geelong is in freefall having lost four of their last five matches. It isn't just that they are losing. It is how easily they are being scored against. They conceded 112 points to Sydney and a frankly embarrassing 164 points to the Gold Coast Suns recently. Their defensive structure looks porous and their midfield is struggling to stop the flow.
Contrast that with Michael Voss’s men. Carlton is arguably the form team of the competition right now. They have won four of their last five games and have knocked over genuine contenders during that run. Their midfield depth is overpowering opponents and their key forwards are functioning beautifully. While Geelong started the year hot, they have turned ice cold with a 1-5 record in their last six starts. The momentum is heavily skewed in favour of the Navy Blues.
Key Matchups
This game will be won or lost in the engine room. Carlton's midfield duo of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh is operating at an elite level. They are ranked top-tier for a reason. Geelong's midfield looks a step slow in comparison and relies too heavily on an ageing core. If the Blues get on top at the stoppage, their forwards will feast.
Keep an eye on the ruck battle. Tom De Koning has evolved before our eyes. He isn't just a tap ruckman anymore. He is essentially playing as an extra midfielder who happens to be 200cm tall. His ability to cover the ground is exposing traditional rucks and he is racking up disposal counts that some wingmen would be jealous of.
For the Cats, Max Holmes is the one shining light. With Patrick Dangerfield slowing down, Holmes is the one generating all the drive from the back half. He is their most reliable line-breaker. If Carlton shuts him down, Geelong struggles to move the ball with any fluidity.
The Verdict
While the Cats usually carry a fear factor, that aura has evaporated over the last month. The MCG is a second home for the Blues so any venue advantage Geelong might usually claim is neutralized here. Carlton’s midfield depth is simply too strong and Geelong's defensive leaks are too severe to plug in one week. We expect the Blues to control the territory battle and pull away for a comfortable win.
Prediction: Carlton by 17 points (78-95)
Sharp Same Game Multi
We are building a multi here that banks on current form lines holding true. The bookies are giving us decent value for things that have happened consistently over the last month.
- Carlton to Win: Geelong is 1-5 in their last six. Carlton is flying. Don't overthink it.
- Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals: The dual Coleman medallist is the definition of consistency. He has kicked 2, 3, 4, 2, and 2 goals in his last five starts. Geelong's defenders are under siege and Charlie will get plenty of looks.
- Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals: Walsh averages 30.6 disposals this season. He had a quieter one last week with 22 but hit 34 and 32 in the two weeks prior. He will bounce back hard on the big MCG deck.
- Max Holmes 20+ Disposals: Holmes averages 25.6 touches and has cleared the 20 mark in 12 of his 13 games this year. He is the guy Geelong trusts with the ball.
Combined Odds: 3.10
Adventurous Same Game Multi
If you want to chase a bigger return, the value lies in the unique role Tom De Koning is playing and the goal-scoring power of the small forwards.
- Tom De Koning 20+ Disposals: TDK has turned into a ruck-rover. His last three games have yielded 24, 18, and 25 disposals. He is dominating around the ground.
- Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals: Stengle is back to his All-Australian best with 10 goals in his last four games. He loves the space at the 'G.
- Patrick Cripps 1+ Goal: The skipper drifts forward with menace. He has kicked goals in three of his last five and Geelong's midfield defence is leaky.
- Jeremy Cameron 2+ Goals: Even in losses Cameron hits the scoreboard. He has kicked at least one goal in every game this year.
- Carlton to Win: The Blues have the momentum and the personnel to get this done.
Combined Odds: 22.50
Roughy Bets
The market has not caught up to Tom De Koning's new role yet. He is playing like a fourth midfielder.
Tom De Koning 25+ Disposals @ 6.50 He had 25 touches two weeks ago and 24 last week. Getting $6.50 for him to do something he has done in two of his last three games is exceptional value.
Tyson Stengle 4+ Goals @ 5.50 Stengle kicked 4 against the Gold Coast recently and 3 last week. If Geelong gets on top for a period it is usually through his brilliance. He is worth a small play at this price.