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AI AFL Tips: Adelaide Crows vs West Coast Eagles Round 11 2024
Adelaide Crows vs West Coast Eagles AI AFL tips for Round 11 2024, including our predicted winner, score projection, same-game multi legs, roughy bets, and key players.
Our Prediction
75% confidence76
West Coast Eagles
vs
98
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Crows by 22 points
Actual: West Coast Eagles 38 - 137 Adelaide Crows — ✔ Correct
Sharp Same Game Multi
✔ Adelaide Crows to Win$1.22
Adelaide at home against a bottom-four side is a reliable play, especially given West Coast's travel struggles.
✔ Liam Duggan 20+ Disposals$1.15
Duggan has been accumulating possessions at will, averaging 26.0 in his last five games with a low of 22.
✔ Matt Crouch 25+ Disposals$1.25
Crouch is the engine room for the Crows, hitting this mark in 4 of his last 5 games, including a massive 34 touches last week.
✘ Jake Waterman Anytime Goalscorer$1.18
Waterman is in Coleman Medal form, booting 23 goals in his last 5 matches. He simply doesn't miss out.
Combined Odds: $2.25
A foundation built on Adelaide's home advantage and the most consistent ball-winners and scorers on the park.
Super Same Game Multi
✘ Adelaide Crows 1-39$2.10
The Eagles are competitive enough to prevent a blowout, unlike last year. Adelaide should win, but a 40+ thrashing seems unlikely given WCE's defensive improvements.
✘ Jake Waterman 3+ Goals$2.40
The form forward of the competition. His last five games read: 5, 3, 4, 5, 6 goals. This is statistically safer than the odds suggest.
✘ Liam Duggan 25+ Disposals$1.75
He's cleared this line in his last 4 consecutive matches. The Eagles look for him constantly coming out of defence.
✔ Jordan Dawson 25+ Disposals$1.65
The skipper loves playing at Adelaide Oval and has hit 25+ in 4 of his last 5. He'll lift against the Eagles' young mids.
✔ Harley Reid Anytime Goalscorer$1.90
The kid is a moment-maker. He kicked 2 goals last week and rests forward often enough to impact the scoreboard.
Combined Odds: $21.50
We're banking on Waterman continuing his hot streak and the Crows winning a controlled game at home.
Roughy & Value Bets
✘ Jake Waterman 4+ Goals$4.20 · Value: 9
He has kicked 4 or more goals in 4 of his last 5 matches. The market hasn't fully caught up to his elite production rate.
✘ Liam Duggan 30+ Disposals$3.75 · Value: 7
He had 29 disposals last week and 27 the week before. In a game where West Coast might be under siege in defence, the ball will be in his hands a lot.
Key Players to Watch
Jake Waterman
Averaging 4.6 goals over his last 5 games. He is the barometer for the Eagles' ability to stay in touch.
Matt Crouch
Adelaide relies on his contested work to feed their outside runners. His disposal count is a key metric for Crows dominance.
Liam Duggan
His disposal numbers have spiked significantly. He is the safe pair of hands the Eagles use to exit defence.
Key Factors
- Home Ground Fortress: Adelaide Oval is a difficult trip, and the Crows lift significantly in front of their home crowd.
- The Waterman Factor: Jake Waterman is arguably the most dangerous forward in the league right now on form.
- Travel Fatigue: West Coast is coming off a massive emotional high beating Melbourne, but young teams historically struggle to back that up interstate.