FootyBets.aiHinkley’s Power primed to punish struggling Roos in Tassie
If you believe in narratives, this Saturday afternoon in Hobart is shaping up to be a horror movie for the home side. We have the beleaguered North Melbourne, sitting winless at 0-9, hosting a Port Adelaide outfit that is desperate to silence the critics and boost their percentage. Then there is the Jason Horne-Francis factor. The former number one pick returns to the state and the ground where his career began, and if history is anything to go by, he and his Power teammates are going to enjoy their trip south.
Punters searching for the smartest AI AFL betting tips might overcomplicate this one with deep data dives, but sometimes the answer is staring you right in the face. The gap between these two sides is currently a chasm. Port Adelaide has treated Bellerive Oval like a training ground in recent years, dismantling the Kangaroos by margins of 70 and 69 points in their last two meetings at the venue. That is not just a trend; it is a statement of dominance.
The Form Line
North Melbourne is in a world of hurt. They are statistically the worst defensive side in the competition, and their inability to halt momentum shifts has been their undoing all season. They often show a pulse for a quarter or two before the dam wall bursts in the third term. With a percentage sitting at a dismal 56%, they aren't just losing; they are getting thumped.
Port Adelaide sits in the finals mix but has been frustratingly inconsistent. However, they view North Melbourne as prey. Ken Hinkley knows that in a tight season, percentage is king. Coming off a mixed month, the Power midfield will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing a young Roos engine room that bleeds uncontested possessions.
The Matchups That Matter
The Midfield Battle: Zak Butters and Connor Rozee (fitness permitting) are pure class. Butters, in particular, feasts on lower-tier midfields. He racked up 32 touches against the Roos at this ground last year and is averaging nearly 30 a game in 2024. He runs hard both ways, something the North mids struggle to match for four quarters.
Tristan Xerri vs The World: The one shining light for North has been their big ruckman. Xerri is playing like a man possessed, averaging 7.4 tackles per game. That is absurd for a player of his size. He is practically a fourth midfielder, but he lacks support. He will battle hard, but he can't stop the tide alone.
Jason Horne-Francis: The 'JHF' factor cannot be ignored. He thrives on the hostility. Expect the crowd to let him have it, and expect him to respond by winning hard ball and driving it inside 50 with purpose. He averages 22.6 disposals this year and loves sticking it to his old club.
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Prediction
This feels like a total collapse game for the Roos. While they might scrap early, the sheer weight of possession Port Adelaide will generate should see the margin blow out significantly after half-time. The history at Bellerive is too specific to ignore. Port scores heavily here, and North concedes heavily here.
We are tipping a comfortable afternoon for the visitors. The Power forwards will have ample supply, and the class difference in the middle will be evident from the first bounce. Port Adelaide to win comfortably and cover the line.
Verdict: Port Adelaide by 52 points
Sharp Same Game Multi (Odds: 2.06)
For those looking to build a bank without the stress, this SGM relies on volume and class.
- Port Adelaide to Win: It is 3rd vs 18th in reality. North are winless. This is the anchor.
- Zak Butters 25+ Disposals: He is elite and consistent. Averaging 29.4, he should hit 25 in his sleep against this opposition.
- Harry Sheezel 25+ Disposals: The ball lives in North’s back half. Sheezel is the designated distributor and averages 30.4. Even in a drubbing, he gets his numbers.
- Tristan Xerri 5+ Tackles: The big man hunts the ball carrier. He has hit 5+ tackles in six of his last ten games.
Adventurous Same Game Multi (Odds: 17.50)
If you want to chase some serious value, we are banking on a blowout and some specific player performances.
- Port Adelaide -39.5 Line: Given the 70-point average margin in recent Tassie clashes, covering 40 points feels very achievable.
- Willie Rioli 2+ Goals: Rioli is in rare touch with 7 goals in his last two games. North's small defenders panic under pressure.
- Jason Horne-Francis 20+ Disposals: He will want to make a statement. 20 touches is a low bar for a player of his calibre in a grudge match.
- Zak Butters 30+ Disposals: We are bumping his line up. In a high-scoring game, the midfielders rack up huge numbers.
- Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals: LDU carries the Roos. He fights to the end and had 35 and 29 touches recently. He gets it done regardless of the scoreboard.
The Roughy
Tristan Xerri 9+ Tackles @ 5.50
This is where the value lives. Xerri isn't just a ruckman; he is a tackling machine. He has recorded double-digit tackle counts twice in his last ten games. Against a Port midfield that loves to take the game on and invite pressure, there will be plenty of opportunities for Xerri to wrap someone up. At $5.50, it is a great price for a statistical outlier who is currently in peak form.