FootyBets.aiAI AFL Tips: Why the Lions Will Eat the Blues Alive at the Gabba
Righto, punters, the wait is finally over. Put the cues back in the rack for the off-season, because the real stuff is back. We are kicking off 2024 with an absolute belter at the Gabba: the preliminary final rematch between the Brisbane Lions and Carlton.
Now, if you remember how 2023 ended, the Lions will be absolutely stinging. They fell short by a kick in the big dance against the Pies, and nothing fuels a pre-season quite like heartbreak. On the flip side, the Blues finally got the monkey off their back and won a final, but they’ve walked into this Brisbane Lions vs Carlton prediction with a massive injury cloud hanging over their heads.
Let’s cut the waffle and get stuck into the form.
Form Analysis: The Fortress vs The Ferrari (Minus the Engine)
Let’s look at the cold hard numbers. Last year, the Brisbane Lions turned the Gabba into a literal fortress. They didn’t drop a single game at home during the home-and-away season. Not one. They monstered teams in the humidity, using that precision kicking game to pick apart defences.
Chris Fagan’s men averaged over 98 points per game at home last year. That is scary reading for a Carlton defence that relies heavily on Jacob Weitering holding up the dam wall.
For the Blues, the narrative is all about who isn't there. Sam Walsh. He’s the Ferrari of that midfield, the bloke who runs until his legs fall off. Without him, and with Cerra under an injury cloud leading up to this, the midfield balance shifts dramatically. While the Blues were the form team of the back half of 2023, walking into the Gabba without your best gut-runner is like bringing a knife to a shootout.
Our AI AFL Betting Tips model has crunched the data, and it’s flagging a distinct advantage for the home side in the clearance differential and inside-50 efficiency.
Key Matchups: Where the Game Won’t Lie
Lachie Neale vs The Carlton Tag The dual Brownlow medalist finds the footy in his sleep. With Walsh out, expect the Blues to send someone like Hewett to sit on Neale. But good luck stopping him at the Gabba. If Neale gets off the chain and racks up 30+, stick a fork in the Blues—they’re done.
Charlie Curnow vs Harris Andrews This is the heavyweight title fight. King Charles kicked a bag regularly last year to win another Coleman, but Harris Andrews is the defensive general. If the Lions can cut off the supply (which they should, given the midfield dominance), Curnow might find himself wrestling 2-on-1 all night.
Charlie Cameron vs The Crowd When 'Country Roads' starts playing, the Blues are in trouble. Cameron feeds off the Gabba energy like no other player in the comp. Saad has the pace to go with him, but does he have the discipline?
The Verdict: Why We’re Backing the Lions
Look, I love what Vossy has done with the Blues. They play a hard, contested brand of footy. But tipping against Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 1? You’re braver than I am.
The Lions have too much firepower. Their forward line is stacked with Daniher, Hipwood, Cameron, McCarthy, and Rayner. It’s a pick-your-poison scenario for the Carlton back six. Add in the humidity factor which always saps the legs of the Victorian sides late in the game, and I can see the Lions running over the top of them in the last quarter.
We aren't hedging here. The Lions win this, and they cover the line.
OUR TIP: Brisbane Lions by 18 points (96-78) CONFIDENCE: 82%
Same Game Multi Breakdown
We’ve cooked up two multis for you. One to pay for the beers, and one to pay for the holiday.
The "Don't Overthink It" Sharp SGM (Odds: $2.35)
- Brisbane Lions to Win: They haven't dropped a game at the Gabba in over a year. Lock it in. It’s the anchor of the bet.
- Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: Death, taxes, and Neale getting leather poisoning. 25 touches is a walk in the park for him.
- Charlie Curnow Anytime Goalscorer: Even if the Blues get belted, King Charles kicks a snag. He’s the Coleman medalist for a reason; he doesn't go goalless.
Reasoning: This is a steady anchor to start the season. We're backing the home ground advantage and the two best players on the park to do the basics.
The "Adventurous" SGM (Odds: $23.50)
- Brisbane Lions 1-39 Margin: The Blues are too good to get totally monstered. It'll be comfortable, but not a 60-point blowout.
- Hugh McCluggage 20+ Disposals: The smooth mover loves the open spaces of the Gabba. He’s due for a massive year.
- Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals: He loves the big stage. Two goals is standard fare for Charlie at home.
- Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: With Walsh out, 'Crippa' has to put the team on his back. He’ll be hunting the footy at every stoppage.
- Total Points Over 168.5: Conditions are humid but perfect for fast footy. Both forward lines are absolutely stacked with talent.
Reasoning: We're banking on a high-scoring shootout where the Lions' class forward of centre gets them the chocolates, but Cripps fights a lone hand for the visitors.
Roughy Bets: Where the Value Is
If you want to have a ping at something with a bit more meat on the bone, here is where our AI AFL Tips see the value.
1. Joe Daniher 4+ Goals ($4.20) Big Joe is the ultimate enigma, but he kicks bags when he's in the mood. The season opener, under lights, against a fierce rival? This screams "Joe Show". If Weitering is occupied with Hipwood or floating loose, Joe could tear this game apart.
2. George Hewett 30+ Disposals ($5.50) Someone has to pick up the slack for Walsh. Hewett is a stoppage beast. If the game becomes a contested slog, he will be at the bottom of every pack. At $5.50, that’s massive overs for a bloke who will likely play 90% midfield time.
Final Word
Carlton will bring the heat early, but the Lions have too many weapons and that Gabba advantage is genuine. Expect Brisbane to flex their muscles in the second half and send the Blues packing. Good luck, and remember to gamble responsibly.
Prediction: Lions 96 - Blues 78